Jobless Recovery Update
The Ass. Press, which has played a key role in propagating the “jobless recovery” meme, reports that the unemployment rate has dipped to 5.6% with the creation of 112,000 new jobs last month.
Employers added new jobs last month at a pace not seen in three years. The last time payrolls expanded more than 112,000 was in December 2000, when companies added 124,000 positions.
Hey, great news! All those economists who predicted a “jobless” recovery were wrong after all. Not so fast. What the Ass. Press giveth, the Ass. Press can also take(-th) away:
But economists were disappointed, saying they had expected a larger increase of 150,000 new jobs or more.
In other words, even when they called the recovery “jobless,” they knew it was creating new jobs, and actually thought it was going to create even more than it did. Among us knuckle-dragging laymen, such rhetorical tactics are commonly known as “lying.” I’m sure that economists have a nicer name for it than that, so for want of a better term, let’s just call it Special Math.
Now that you know Special Math, where the expected 150,000 new jobs = “jobless,” consider the implications for the number of new jobs we actually got. That number may look like 112,000 to us innumerate neanderthals, but to the Special Mathemeticians, it will come out to -38,000 jobs. So while it looks to the naked eye like a jobful recovery, with total jobs increasing and the overall unemployment rate declining, once you understand and properly apply Special Math to the numbers, the “jobless recovery” naysayers were actually optimists.
It should be noted that this particular Ass. Press article, unlike many others before it, does not actually use the word “jobless” to describe the recovery. It does use the word once, in “jobless rate.” Let’s assume, for the sake of argument, that no Special Math was needed in calculating the “jobless” rate, and that that rate is based entirely on people who, um, don’t have jobs. Based on that, you might think that the Ass. Press is finally starting to clean up its act and report in a manner that is more Fair and Balanced
February 6th, 2004 at 11:25 am
Dude,
You should have read the AP article. It pointed out that the Household Survey says that 496,000 jobs were created last month- http://apnews.myway.com/article/20040206/D80HSO483.html
February 6th, 2004 at 11:28 am
They get away with this because job losess and job gains trail economic changes. As conditions worsen, employers try several things before they actually start firing people, something they don’t want to do. As conditions improve, they delay on hiring, trying other things, as they do not want to bulk up just to fire again.
So, Clinton’s recession may have led to inevitable job losses, but they happened some time later, after he left office. He also got the delayed gains credited for the recovery that sttarted on Bush Sr’s watch.
And, of course, if Kerry wins, he’ll get the same boost….
All economists know this, but some forget it when it harms their argument.
February 6th, 2004 at 12:25 pm
Unemployment Drops To 5.6%
WSJ.com - Payrolls Grow by 112,000 Jobs As Unemployment Rate Drops This is a surprisingly sour report given that the unemployment rate dropped to 5.6% and the economy created 112,000 new jobs. The jobs number didn’t “meet expectations” and the…
February 7th, 2004 at 11:10 am
Good post Xrlq. Man these people really bug me. That Herbert Hoover line is one of those catch phrases of the anti-Bushies.
February 7th, 2004 at 12:56 pm
Bear Flag Roundup
There is a serious amount of good blogging going on with the Bear Flag league. Here’s a few samples. Baldilocks writes that it’s amazing the way the human mind works. Selective, too. Blogospherics couldn’t resist the pressure, and finally commented…
February 7th, 2004 at 3:13 pm
I’ve got a job. You?
Xrlq does a bit of a fisking of an Ass. Press article about the so-called jobless recovery. Oh man, I’m gonna have to add that and the Herbert Hoover line to my list of words and phrases all good liberals…