As for the specific policies that his base (base, since his losing his base is the crux of the problem) doesn’t like, I would cite immigration (yes, he’s been in favor of amnesty for a while, but it’s only recently come to the forefront), sticking around in Iraq, federal spending, the medicare drug benefit, and high gas prices*.

* yes, he’s not responsible, but the public seems to hold him responsible anyway, since his unpopularity sure tracks the price of gas.

A good salesman can make people aware of a product, he can make people aware of the (perceived) benefits of a product, he can hopefully address objections people have to buying those products…

Ari Fleischer did a decent job in this regard, and Bush’s ratings were fine. McClellan did a so-so job making people aware of the Administration’s policies, and an abysmal job of addressing objections people had to them – even on the frequent occasions when the underlying policies were popular, the press’s objections were silly and McClellan should have owned his oppponents. I would hope that if we agree on nothing else, we can agree that Snow will do a better job than McClellan in this regard – correct?

but will do next to no good if either (1) the people are aware of the product and just don’t like it, or (2) distrust the manufacturer of the product. And, unfortunately for Bush, the people (yes, Pauline) don’t like what Bush is pitching… but more importantly, they don’t like – or trust – him.

I think (2) is a bit overly broad, as it fails to account for why the people distrust the manufacturer. Without understanding why people distrust the manufacturer, it’s impossible to tell what the manufacturer can do to regain that trust, or if it is even possible to do so. People distrust tobacco companies because they manufacture tobacco products; good luck marketing your way out of that problem. Similarly, if Bush’s trust problem arose from him actually doing anything untrustworthy, there’s not a lot any spin doctor could do to help him. However, actual breach of trust is not the source of the problem; failure to respond promptly and effectively to all the moonbat “Bush lied, people died, Halliburton got rich and Presidents declassifying information is a crime” crap as it arose over the years, is. The “promptly” train left the station a long time ago, so if your only point is that hiring Tony Snow now will not boost Bush’s rankings as high as they probably would be if the Administration three years ago, I don’t disagree. But there is evidence that at least some lost ground can be regained, e.g., the last time Bush & Cheney did go on the offensive, poll numbers did improve.

As to policies the public simply doesn’t like, which ones do you have in mind? Non-amnesty amnesty is the only one that comes to mind, but Bush has been pushing that issue for years so no one can credibly claim “betrayal” over that one (though some do, other than credibly). The rest of the stuff that has the media exercised right now – violating al-Qaeda’s civil liberties, declassifying information without consulting the Dalai Lama or whoever the hell else the media thinks gets to decide what information will or will not be classified, you name it – is stuff that sells reasonably well with the public DESPITE the Administration’s marketing department having been AWOL. If the Administration had actually made its case for these programs rather than lazily assuming they didn’t have to, how could that not result in higher poll ratings?

While I try hard not to challenge you on your home turf of the law, since marketing is my area of expertise, I challenge your assertion that a new salesman will help Bush. A good salesman can make people aware of a product, he can make people aware of the (perceived) benefits of a product, he can hopefully address objections people have to buying those products… but will do next to no good if either (1) the people are aware of the product and just don’t like it, or (2) distrust the manufacturer of the product. And, unfortunately for Bush, the people (yes, Pauline) don’t like what Bush is pitching… but more importantly, they don’t like – or trust – him.

The people who think Bush is merely suffering from a bad advertising campaign are going to be sadly disappointed when Savior Snow fails to bump Bush’s ratings to the 50%+ mark.

Tony Snow can dress up Bush’s policies but the public will still recognize them for the pigs that they are.

[..]

Thinking that Bush’s problem lies with the messenger only delays the inevitable having to face up to the fact that the public just doesn’t like what Bush is selling

Calling someone you don’t even know a “pig” reveals a lot more about you than about them, and calling your opinion a “fact” does not make it so. I think you’d be hard-pressed to point to any significant difference between the Bush Administration’s policies today, vs. a year or two ago, when his polling numbers were much better. Nor will you find any proof that Americans’ attitudes on the substantive issues have changed, except maybe on Iraq, and then only because it’s been increasingly perceived as a failure. And if you think that perception has nothing to do with the abysmal job the Administration has done in pointing out its successes, you’re dreaming.

and a new salesman won’t do Bush any more good than a new set of commercials will help GM sell more cars.

Translated: a new salesman will do Bush as much good as a new set of commercials will do to help GM sell more cars, assuming that the new set of commercials is superior to the old set by the same margin Snow is to McClellan. Of course a new ad campaign can help sell more cars, what do you think ad campaigns are for?

My guess is that you’ve fallen into the Pauline Kael trap: no salesman for the Bush Administration would be able to persuade Steve Sturm to back the Administration or purchase a GM car, therefore, no salesman could ever persuade anyone else, either. Of course some people will always buy GM / vote Republican, and others never will, but in both cases, it’s up to the salesman to reach everyone else.

Thinking that Bush’s problem lies with the messenger only delays the inevitable having to face up to the fact that the public just doesn’t like what Bush is selling… and a new salesman won’t do Bush any more good than a new set of commercials will help GM sell more cars.

remember, a press secretary is only as good as the policies he is trying to sell, and Bush’s policies are going over as well with the public as (insert reference here).

Don’t mind if I do:

Remember, a press secretary is only as good as the policies he is trying to sell, and Bush’s policies are going over as well with the public as Scott McClellan has been selling them.