A new ad in North Carolina has gotten quite a buzz lately for daring to say bad things about the Democrat candidate who is supposed to be worshiped rather than challenged. Oddly enough, no one is attacking it on the merits, which they certainly could do since attacking two gubernatorial candidates for endorsing a guy who has a cozy relationship with another guy takes guilt by association to a whole new level, but that’s neither here nor there. Jason Zengerle of Beauchamp Central the New Republic thinks the ad is intended to benefit Hillary Clinton rather than any of the Republican gubernatorial candidates, writing:

What they didn’t mention at all is that the North Carolina GOP ad is intended to help Hillary in the May 6 primary. I mean, if the NC GOP really wanted the ad to help McCain, wouldn’t they be running this ad in October or November? This is clearly an attempt to play the race and the Wright card against Obama in the hopes of hurting him in the Democratic Primary. Which suggests that there are at least some Republicans out there who still think Obama is the more formidable general election candidate.

Methinks Zengerle made one typo: reminding voters about Obama’s racist chums makes an issue of his alleged racism, not his race. Thus, it is properly described as the “racism card,” not the “race card.” That said, while I agree that Zengerle’s explanation of the ad is plausible, I do not believe it is the only plausible explanation, nor even the most plausible one. Other possibilities:

1. The ad is intended to depress Democratic turnout in the primary and boost participation in the Republican one among independents, who are free to vote in either party’s primary.
2. Similar to #1, but the NC GOP is in the tank for a specific candidate (e.g., Orr or McCrory) who they expect would benefit disproportionally from such cross-over votes.
3. The NC GOP considers it a fait accompli that Obama will be the nominee, and is getting an early start on making sure 2008 doesn’t become the first year since 1976 that NC carried the Democrat nominee.
4. Similar to #3, but the NC has a certain amount of money that can only be spent on certain issues (e.g., state elections) or at certain times (e.g., in advance of the primary), so they are running this ad now rather than a very similar ad when they’d really like to run it.
5. The ad really is intended primarily to hurt both Democrat candidates for governor. They don’t care which one wins, only that whoever does be inextricably tied to Obama, not because he’s the more extreme Democrat candidate, but because he’s the one the NC GOP expects to be around in November.

Personally, I lean toward #5. I don’t see an attack on Obama, who is the odds-on favorite to win the NC Democratic Primary, hurting any other Democrat in that same primary. I do see a strategy of joining the Presidential nominee (whoever they think it will be) and the gubernatorial nominee (whoever it turns out to be) at the hip. Why? Simple: because NC voters usually elect Democrats as governor, but almost never elect them as President. If the presidential and gubernatorial candidates are generally perceived as two separate items in a cafeteria, the Democrats will likely win one race while the Republicans win the other. If they’re viewed as a package deal, Republicans win both.

UPDATE: No, Mr. McMaverick, just because a maverick state party declines to take marching orders from the suits in DC does not mean it is out of touch with reality. Your meddling, however, does raise questions as to whether you are out of touch with a very specific reality that the North Carolina gubernatorial race and your presidential campaign are two different races. Here’s an idea every maverick can love: don’t tell us how to run our campaign, and we won’t tell you how to run yours.

UPDATE: Tom Maguire has more.